Implementación de Prospectiva Energética como Estrategia Prioritaria para la Soberanía Energética y Sostenibilidad Nacional

Abstract

The aim of the present article is to highlight the importance of implementing prospective analysis methods in the Ecuadorian energy sector planning system, in order to generate information that will be used as an input for decision making towards the investment necessary for achieving energy sovereignty and sustainability in the context of the energy and industry matrix transition process. Energy balance and energy forecasting are the main pillars for energy planning given that both constitute tools that generate information and knowledge used for policy formulation and decision making. The undergoing processes in Ecuador of changing the energy, and the industry matrix demand a thoroughly analysis whose results assure the achievement of the objectives set by the Ecuadorian Government in the fields of energy and sufficiency and renewability. INER has proposed the development of a project whose main objective is to establish an interinstitutional panel for integrated management of energy information, and to evaluate and implement methodologies for developing multicriteria energy forecasting scenarios. This will provide inputs for long range energy planning, and policy and decision making. One of the key aspects of the project is the consolidation of technical and scientific capabilities on an interinstitutional level to develop energy forecasting. The results of the project are expected to be a key stone for strengthening political and strategic mechanisms that will guarantee energy security and sustainability. This will incise in the change of the energy and industry matrix, and poverty eradication.