Método para Calcular Políticas de Operación a Largo Plazo de Sistemas Hidroeléctricos de Potencia en el Contexto del Cambio Climático

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present an optimization method to calculate robust quasioptimal operating policies of hydrothermal power systems (SHTP). An optimal policy means one of lowest cost, and robust one that despite variations in the inflow to the reservoir produces a number of failures less than or equal to 10%. As a case study, the method was applied to a SHTP with hydroelectric features similar to Paute. This procedure is a variation of the method of particles, and consists of two phases: first, an optimal policy is calculated that corresponds to the average inflow to the plant reservoir, and second, in its neighborhood another one is looked for that is also robust. In both phases searches are performed using genetic algorithms. In order to consider the effects of climate change horizons of 30 years were used. This method could be useful to estimate quasi-optimal robust policies on the longterm operation of hydroelectric plants. It could also be used to estimate properly the size of its reservoirs in the planning stages. Initially, when the method was applied to the case under study no robust quasi-optimal policies were found; this was no surprise since its hydroelectric plant had characteristics that corresponds to an “in passing” central. However, when the size of the reservoir was increased, then various solutions with the desired characteristics were found. It is the system administrator who will ultimately decide which one to apply.