Determinación de los Modelos Estocásticos de Generación de las Centrales del Sistema Nacional Interconectado

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to determine the stochastic models of power generation plants of the Ecuadorian National Interconnected System S.N.I. These stochastic models will be then used as input to implement a Generation Adequacy methodology that will allow determining adequate energy reserve margins considering uncertainties such as availability of renewable resources (hydric, wind, solar). In order to determine the stochastic models, a methodology based on determination of probability density functions (PDF), is proposed. This methodology uses as input the stochastic results of the software SDDP (Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming) for a timeframe of one year. Since the obtained PDFs are independent functions, a novel methodology to compute an “average” probability density function is proposed in this paper by applying the concept of convolution.