First Complete and Sustainable Energy Transition Study for Ecuador “The End of Oil”

Abstract

What will happen if Ecuador’s economy continues to grow without change? What can be done to stop it from failing? Which potentials could be used to change the fate of Ecuador to the better?

These are question of the first complete energy study of Ecuador in times of the end of oil, globally increasing extractivism, lavish consume and declining agriculture. This Creative Commons, open source and independent study [1] uses complex simulations to develop different scenarios for growth of renewables and development of oil prices, predicting great instability for Ecuador with business as usual by 2020.

This study reveals the sustainable renewable energy potential of Ecuador of at least 103 GW. It is shown that Ecuador can achieve 100 % energy autarky by only 60 GW renewable installation, while fossil infrastructure can be recycled and reused. Simulations clarify that local and main grid stability can be guaranteed by power-togas technology. Considering economic and timedepended parameters simulation show that the entire transformation can be completed within 10 to 15 years. This creates at least 100 000 qualified long-term jobs and zero Green House Gas (GHG) emission, while generating an annual surplus of 50 billion USD for overall economy or decrease the end user energy prices. To cover the final primary energy of 160 TWh/a demand only 0,2 % of Ecuador’s territory is needed.