Evaluación Probabilística y Gestión del Riesgo de la Cargabilidad de la Red por la Puesta en Servicio del Metro de Quito considerando el Movimiento Estocástico de los Trenes Eléctricos

Abstract

This paper presents a methodological proposal to assess the effects of the Quito City Subway’s mobile loads (electric trains) over the Empresa Eléctrica Quito’s electric grid. This proposal, based on Monte Carlo simulation, allows generating random operation scenarios for mass electric transportation systems considering movement, energy consumption, and operating conditions for electric trains. This method gauges probabilistic power flows using probability density functions (PDFs). In the same way, it computes risk indexes to measure the minimum or maximum expected values of loadability characterizing factors, such as equipment loading, voltage profiles, among others taking into account a defined degree of confidence.