Analysis of Firm Energy in Hydroelectric Autogenerators Considering the Transmission Network

Abstract

This article presents a methodological proposal for calculating the firm energy of hydroelectric plants, considering monthly flow duration curves and a stochastic approach instead of the traditional deterministic approach. This methodological implementation demonstrated that incorporation of the monthly flow duration curves and the consideration of the stochastic nature of the hydrological resource, maximizes the opportunity of participation of private hydroelectric plants enabled as self-generators for the signing of bilateral contracts with largescale consumers; aspect which allows ARCERNNR carry out regulatory adjustments required for Regulation No. ARCONEL 004/17 “Regulation for Largescale Consumers”.

As part of the study, a statistical analysis of the energy production of self-generators, self-consumption and delivery of surplus energy from self-generators was also carried out, in order to know the current situation of self-generators and evaluate future adjustments to the conditions established in the regulation "001/14 - Participation of Self-Generators in the Electricity Sector". Additionally, the reliability of the energy supply of the system was analyzed considering the operation of self-generators and the supply of consumptions for a horizon of 7 years, under different hydrology scenarios. For the development of this work, the computational model SDDP was used.